需求驱动下的经济增长及增长中的价格水平波动——基于投资与消费本质属性分析框架的阐释

Economic Growth Stimulated by Demand and Price Fluctuation in Growth——Explanation Based on the Properties of Consumer Demand and Investment Demand

基于投资与消费本质属性的理论框架和实证分析表明:(1)消费需求是经济增长的最初需求动力,对经济增长的驱动作用由强变弱再变强,受消费需求导向的投资需求对经济增长的驱动作用由弱变强再变弱;(2)均衡增长状态下,产出与投资、消费同步增长,价格水平基本稳定;(3)相对于消费需求而言,投资需求的"投资滞后性"和"投资惯性"的存在使投资常与消费非同步增长,导致经济失衡和价格水平规律性波动,即经济发展早期阶段的价格水平上升多为消费需求拉动,经济发展中后期阶段的价格水平上升多为成本推动,而结构性价格水平上升会随着消费结构升级而成为一种常态;(4)1978年以来,中国经济增长的总体态势良好,但长期高投资率导致的强"投资惯性"致使当前产能过剩及通货膨胀预期并存,对中国经济持续稳定增长形成较大威胁。政府应通过以消费结构升级为导向扩大投资,努力提高农村居民收入水平,推进农村居民消费结构升级和稳定粮食价格等措施进行化解。。

he theoretical framework based on the properties of consumer demand and investment demand and the empirical analysis indicate ： （ 1 ） consumer demand is the original demand power, and economic growth stimulated by consumer degoes from strength to weakness then to strength, and stimulated by investment demand goes from weakness to strength then to weakness, （2）the input has the same increasing amount with the investment demand and the consumer demand on equilibrium conditions, and the general price level is rising slowly, （3）it is the normal state that investment demand does not sync - increasing with the consumer demand according to its hysterics and inertness, which results to the unbalance of eco- increase and the regular fluctuation of general price level （that is, the general price level went up by the consumer de- mand - pull at the early stage of state, and by cost - push at the advanced stage, the general price level will often go up in structural way with the upgrading of consumption structure. ）, and（4） the Chinese economic growth situation is doing rather well in view of the overall situation from 1978, but the over - capacity of production coexistence with inflation expectations induced by the high investment rate level has strong threat to the sustainability of economic growth. Further investment adapted to the upgrading of consumption structure, increasing the income levet and upgrading of consumption structure of rural households, and stabilizing the grain prices are the effective measures to solve the problems .