深化中国—东盟区域金融合作的可行性条件:经济周期同步性研究

The Feasibility Conditions of Deepening the China-ASEAN Regional Financial Cooperation:Economic Cycle Synchronicities Research

中国—东盟自由贸易区的全面启动,使得该区域内金融合作落后于贸易合作的问题越发凸显。根据蒙代尔的最优货币区理论,经济周期是否同步决定区域金融合作是否可行。文章通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型,依据共同趋势和共同周期理论,对中国与东盟经济周期的同步性进行了经验分析。结果表明,中国与东盟经济周期不仅在长期内具有共同的随机发展趋势,短期内也显示出明显的同步性,因而满足加深区域金融合作的可行条件。

The fully implement of China - ASEAN free trade area makes the problem that regional financial cooperation lags behind trade cooperation increasingly prominent. According to the theory of Mudell＇s optimal currency area, economic cycle synchrony decided whether regional financial cooperation is feasible. Based on the common trend and common cycle theory, this article investigated the economic cycle synchrony between China and ASEAN empirically through estab- lishing variable vector error correction model （VECM）. The analysis results showed that China and ASEAN economic cycle, not only has a common random development trend in the long term, but also showed obvious synchronicity in short - term inside thus meet the feasible condition of deepening regional financial cooperation