产业结构变迁、劳动力转移与收入分配——基于VAR模型的实证研究

Change of Industrial Structure,Transfer of Labor Force and Income Distribution——Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

本文根据国家统计局发布的城乡居民人均可支配收入数据,测算了1978-2009年我国城乡居民收入占GDP比重,发现农村居民收入份额大幅下降是近年来我国居民部门收入份额下降的主要原因。结合同时期我国产业结构变迁、劳动力产业分布等数据,通过VAR模型进行了实证研究,发现劳动力转移和产业结构变迁均是居民收入份额下降的主要原因,而劳动力转移的短期效应更为显著。

Based on disposable income of urban and rural residents published by the State Statistic Bureau, the paper measures and calculates the share of resident disposable income, townsfolk disposable income and village people disposable income in GDP respectively in 1978 - 2009. It finds out the main reason of the sharp drop to the share of resident income is due to a sharp drop of village people disposable income. Based on VAR model, and study of the same period data of changes of industrial structure, transfer of labor force, the paper finds that the change of industrial structure and the transfer of labor force is the main reason for the sharp drop of the share of resident income, and short - term effect of shift of labor force is more notable.