贸易增长、劳动力市场刚性与产业间劳动力转移——基于面板数据门槛效应模型的实证研究

Trade Growth,Labor Market Rigidity and The Inter-industries Transfer of Labor Force:An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data Threshold Effect Model

劳动力市场刚性的存在是决定国际贸易能否促进产业间劳动力转移的关键因素之一,然而现有的实证研究却忽视了劳动力市场刚性的决定性作用。本文基于国外文献的度量方法构建劳动力市场刚性和产业间劳动力转移的度量指标,并利用面板数据门槛效应模型研究当劳动力市场刚性存在差异时贸易增长对产业间劳动力转移所产生的不同影响。本文的研究发现,当劳动力市场刚性程度低于门槛值时,贸易增长能加速产业间劳动力转移;而当劳动力市场刚性程度高于门槛值时,贸易增长则会阻碍产业间劳动力转移。由此得出结论,欲使中国的贸易增长起到促进产业间劳动力转移的效果,必须先在劳动力市场领域进行改革,消除劳动力市场刚性。

The existence of labor market rigidity is one of the key factors to determine whether international trade can promote inter - industries labor transfer. However, existing empirical studies have neglected the decisive role of labor market rigidity. In this paper, we build the indicators of labor market rigidity and inter - industries labor transfer based on foreign literatures, and use panel data threshold effect model to research the diffident influence of trade growth on inter - industries labor transfer when there are diffidence of labor market rigidity. Our research find that when the value of labor market rigidity is below the threshold value, trade growth can accelerate the transfer of labor force between industries; when the value of labor market rigidity is above the threshold value, trade growth will hinder the transfer of labor force between industries. So we can get the conclusion that if we want China＇ s trade growth to promote inter - industries transfer,we should first do reform in labor market and eliminate labor market rigidity.