中国产业结构演进中存在“结构红利”吗——基于动态偏离份额分析法的实证研究

Whether "Structure-bonus" Phenomenon Appears during the Change of Chinese Industrial Structure?——An Empirical Research Based on the Dynamic Shift-share Method

本研究采用动态偏离份额分析法,分析中国三次产业和工业产业内部劳动和资本两种要素在行业间的配置情况,以确定在三次产业与工业内部劳动和资本转移中是否存在"结构红利"现象。结果表明:三次产业结构变迁过程中要素流动存在阶段性的"结构红利"现象;工业内部结构变迁过程中要素流动存在"结构负利"现象。综合来看,劳动从第一产业流向二、三产业,提高了整个社会的劳动生产率,资本向第二产业中生产率较低的行业流动,降低了工业内部全要素生产率的增长。

This paper adopts dynamic shift-share method,analyzes the two factors in the thrice industry and industry,labor and capital configuration conditions in different industries,thus thoroughly inspects the two factors flow condition in different industries,to determine whether ＂structure bonus＂ phenomenon appears in the transfer process of the two factors,labor and capital in the thrice industrial and industry.Results show that： During the change of the thrice industrial structure,the ＂structure bonus＂ phenomenon appears in the factors mobility,and this appearance has a certain stage.During the change of industry structure,a certain degree of negative effect appeared in the factors mobility.On the whole,labor element flows from the first industry to the second industry and the thrice industry,so it makes the whole social labor productivity improved; capital element flows to lower productivity industry in the second industry in large scale,so it reduces the growth of the total factor productivity in the industry.