经济周期、所有权与银行盈利的实证研究——基于我国17家主要商业银行的分析

Empirical Research on Economic Cycle,Ownership and Bank Profit——Based on the 17 Major Commercial Bank of China

运用1995—2010年的相关数据,就经济周期、所有权对我国银行盈利水平的影响进行了实证分析。通过研究发现:经济周期对我国银行盈利水平影响显著,股份制银行的盈利水平受经济周期的影响超过国有银行;国有银行与股份制银行盈利水平的差距在缩小。净利差(NIM)对银行盈利影响显著,居民储蓄率对银行盈利水平有正的影响,资本充足率、贷存比等安全性和流动性的监管要求对银行盈利有不利影响及上市对银行盈利水平的影响不显著。

This paper using relevant data from 1995 to 2010, makes an empirical analysis on the economic cycle model, ownership to the impact of bank profit level. The study indicates： economic cycle has significant effects on the profit level of bank, the profit level of the joint-stock banks by the impact of the economic cycle is more than state-owned banks. The profitability gap between state-owned banks and joint-stock bank is narrowing. In addition, the study also finds that net interest margin has significant effect on bank profit level, residents ＇ saving rate has a positive effect on bank profit level, security and the mobility of regulatory requirements like capital ratios, loan-deposit ratio, have an adverse effect on bank profit and going public has not significant impact on bank profit level.