中国居民消费水平变动的实证研究:1978—2009

An Empirical Research on Fluctuate of Chinese Resident's Consumption Level:1978—2009

采用1978—2009年人均消费支出、人均收入、人均储蓄、住房价格以及贷款利率数据,对我国居民消费水平变动进行了长期均衡和短期动态效应分析。研究结果表明:收入水平是影响居民消费的最主要因素;人均储蓄的增加则降低居民的消费水平;住房价格的上升影响了居民长期消费水平;利率调整对我国居民消费的刺激作用并不明显。因此政府应该从提高居民收入水平、降低房价以及推动利率的市场化等方面入手,提高居民消费水平。

By using those data that include per capita consumption expenditure, per capita income, per capita savings, house price and loans data from 1978 to 2009, this topic analyzes the long - run equilibrium and short - term dynamic effect of Chinese resident consumption. Empirical result shows： income level is the major factor to resident consumption, the increase of per capita saving will decrease the consumption level, the increase of house price will affect the consumption level in a long term, and the stimulation of regu- lation on interest rate is not obvious. In order to improve resident consumption level, our government should improve resident income level, drop house price and promote the marketization of interest rate.