河北省种植业高效用水预测研究

Forecast Research on Efficient Water Use in Crop Farming of Hebei Province

为了缓和河北省地下水超采的严峻形势,通过采用专家访谈法及大数定理法,对河北省2011—2015年、2016—2020年不同生态类型区7种不同作物经济灌溉下的低、中、高3种方案的用水量与节水量进行预测研究。结果表明,2011—2015年低方案的用水量约为129亿m3、节水量约14亿m3,中方案的用水量约为122亿m3、节水量约21亿m3,高方案的用水量约为115亿m3、节水量为28亿m3;2016—2020年低方案的用水量约为123亿m3、节水量约7亿m3,中方案的用水量约为112亿m3、节水量约10亿m3,高方案的用水量约为102亿m3、节水量为12亿m3;每个中方案较为理想,最具有可行性,从而为河北省缓解未来5～10年水资源短缺、超采严峻等问题提供了理论依据。

adopting expert interviewing method and Big Figure theorem, the author studied the water-using and water-saving of lower, middle, higher 3 plans of 2011-2015, 2016-2020 7 different crops of 6 different ecological type of Hebei Province. The results indicated that： next 2011-2015, the water-using of lower plan was about 129 millions cubic meter, water-saving was about 14 millions cubic meter, the water-using of middle plan was about 122 millions cubic meter, water-saving was about 21 millions cubic meter, the water-using of higher plan was about 115 millions cubic meter, water-saving was about 28 millions cubic meter; next 2016-2020, the water-using of lower plan was about 123 millions cubic meter, water-saving was about 7 millions cubic meter, the water-using of middle plan was about 112 millions cubic meter, water-saving was about 10 millions cubic meter, the water-using of higher plan was about 102 millions cubic meter water-saving was about 12 millions cubic meter, every middle plan was fairly ideal, the most feasibility therefore to provide theory for Hebei Province relieving the problem of the shortage of water resource and over exploitation in future 5-10 years, and so on.