“真实销售行为”的动态选择与经济后果

A Discussion of Economic Consequences of Real Sales Competitive Behavior

本文在理解企业一般"真实销售竞争"行为基础上深入考察盈余管理动机下"真实销售操控"行为的经济后果。结果发现:一般企业的"真实销售竞争"行为会受到企业市场竞争压力的影响。非微利公司采取更多"真实销售竞争"行为会对公司下一期"经营业绩增长变化"产生正面影响。具有盈余管理动机的微利公司运用过度"真实销售操控"所带来的负面影响会抵消其大部分正面影响;但这并不意味着微利公司的"真实销售操控"行为一定会对下一期"经营业绩增长变化"产生负面影响。研究还发现,公司运用更多"激进收入确认"会对下一期"经营业绩增长变化"产生负面影响。

Given that revenue from main operations is usually the largest number in the income statement, it＇s very important to study how the Ashare listed companies manage the revenue and it＇s following economic consequence .This research distinguishes real sales competitive behavior from real sales manipulation. Real sales competitive behavior is a kind of business decision-making behavior which would be beneficial to keeping competitive advantage or to reduce the pressure of market competition. While real sales manipulation is a certain type of real earnings management.Based on our understanding of real sales competitive behavior we study economic consequences of real sales manipulation and the following results are shown by our research .The pressure of market competition will increase enterprise＇ real sales competitive behavior. Increasing real sales competitive behavior of non-meager profit firms would be beneficial to keeping competitive advantage. And meager profit firms which have earnings management motivation take excessive real sales manipulation which would offset most of its positive effect of keeping a competitive advantage. However this does not mean that more real sales manipulation produce negative influence on future operation performance. We also conform that the operation performance would reverse in next time if more premature discretionary revenue is taken this time.This study makes several important contributions. First, this is one of the few studies that examine the consequences of real sales manipulation .This paper contribute to the understanding of A-share listed companies＇ real sales behavior incentives. Second, in our research design we choose the measure of true operating performance more carefully and control the potential impact of the ehanges in accrued earnings management. Third, while estimating the economic consequences of real sale manipulation we use instrumental variables to overcome the endogeneity. Finally, we build a new theoretical model and our empirical findings deepen our understanding of the economic consequences of real sales competitive behavior.