加工贸易对福建省经济增长影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Effect of Processing Trade on Economic Growth of Fujian Province

阐述了福建省加工贸易发展的现状,利用1987—2009年福建省的相关数据,对福建省加工贸易增长率、加工贸易对经济增长的拉动度和贡献度进行了描述性统计分析;构建了加工贸易对福建经济增长影响的二元线性回归方程。研究结果显示:1987年以来,福建加工贸易增值率总体呈上升态势,福建加工贸易水平有所提升;加工贸易对福建经济增长总体上具有正面的拉动、促进作用;福建省加工贸易净出口额每增加1亿元,该省GDP将增加3.553亿元。

This paper describes the development status of processing trade in Fujian province. By using the data of Fujian province during 1987- 2009, it makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the growth rate of processing trade, the pull degree and contribution degree of processing trade to the economic growth of Fujian. And it constructs a binary linear regression equation to analyze the effect of processing trade on the economic growth of Fujian. The results show as follows：the growth rate of Fujian＇s processing trade takes on a rising trend since 1987,which shows that the development level of Fujian＇s processing trade is enhancing; in generally, the processing trade in Fujian has positive pulling and promoting effects on the economic growth of Fujian; the net export of processing trade in Fujian increases by 1 billion, and GDP would increase by 3. 553 billion.