基于概率模型检验的复杂武器系统任务可靠性评估方法研究

Evaluating Mission Reliability for Complex Weapon Systems with Probabilistic Model Checking

任务可靠性反映武器系统在规定的任务时间和维修保障条件下完成规定作战或训练任务的能力,因此对于评价武器系统的综合效能具有重要意义。将概率模型检验技术引入到复杂武器系统的任务可靠性评估过程中,以某型弹炮结合武器系统为例,建立基于进程代数语言的系统演化过程描述模型;在此基础上,通过连续随机逻辑语言给出任务可靠度、任务可用度、任务效能等多种评价指标的形式化描述公式,借助概率模型检验器实现评价指标的自动计算。该方法能够有效地简化复杂武器系统任务可靠性的评估建模过程和各种评价指标的推导计算过程,并且在求解过程中自动地应用多种优化技术,大幅度提高计算效率。与传统的分析计算方法相比,该方法更适于在工程实践中应用。

Mission Reliability is the ability of a weapon system to execute training or battle missions in specified time under given maintenance support conditions,and thus it is significant to the evaluation of overall performance of weapon systems.The probabilistic model checking technique is introduced to the mission reliability evaluation process of complex weapon systems.Taking a gun-missile system as an example,the evolutionary process of weapon system is modeled using process algebra language,and various evaluation indices,such as mission reliability,mission availability,mission performance et al,are presented using continuous stochastic formulas,and furthermore they are automatically computed using a probabilistic model checker.The approach can efficiently simplify evaluation modeling process and complicated analysis and computation process of various evaluation indices,and during the problem-solving process,multiple optimization techniques are applied to enhance computational efficiency.Hence,it is more suitable for use in engineering practice than traditional analytical approach.