黄金价格、中国黄金储备与通货膨胀关系研究

A Study on the Relationships of Gold Price,China Gold Reserve and Inflation

文章通过格兰杰因果检验了黄金价格、人民币实际有效汇率、国内货币供应量与通货膨胀的关系。研究认为,黄金是对抗通货膨胀的有效工具,黄金价格上涨、黄金储备增大、国际石油价格和大宗商品价格上浮对通货膨胀有持续的拉动效应;货币供应量与通货膨胀之间存在短期与长期效应不一致的现象。提出密切关注黄金价格、增加国家黄金储备、建立黄金价格预警机制等措施。

This research has used Granger Causality Test to discover that the reasons for domestic inflation are gold price,actual RMB exchange rate and domestic monetary supply.This research is based on multi-variable VAR model and monthly data from 1994 to 2010.Using pulse effect and standard deviation decomposition method,it can be concluded that gold is an effective tool to hedge domestic inflation.The rising gold price,increasing China gold reserve,uprising crude oil price and international commodity prices have consistent driving effect on domestic inflation.The appreciation of RMB has certain alleviating effect on domestic inflation pressure,and it is also a most significant factor to trigger domestic inflation.There also exists a disparity between short-term and long term effect of monetary supply and inflation.This research has thereby suggested close attention on gold price fluctuation,increasing gold reserve for China,and establishing scientific gold reserve and early warning mechanism of gold price.