地理空间效应视角下的后发经济区趋同研究——以北部湾经济区为例

THE STUDY OF CONVERGENCE OF LATE-DEVELOPING REGION WITH GEOGRAPHICAL SPATIAL EFFECTS PERSPECTIVE: A CASE STUDY OF BEIBU GULF ECONOMIC ZONE

在新古典增长理论模型的基础上,构建后发经济区经济增长β趋同的空间计量经济学模型框架,从理论上探讨了基于地理空间效应对β趋同进行统计研究的可能性和可行性;通过对2000—2008年北部湾经济区整体和内部三个发展区尺度的经济增长趋同进行实证分析,发现与经典的趋同模型相比,纳入地理空间效应分析框架的空间趋同模型,趋同速度和方程拟合优度均更优,说明地理空间外溢效应在北部湾经济区的经济增长趋同中起着不容忽视的重要作用,也是其空间俱乐部趋同发生的关键机理,这对于后发经济区增长过程中的区域资源共享、要素流通、互助合作、协调发展,具有重要的政策启示。

Based on the new classical growth theory model, and on the basis of constructing the economic growth of the space economic convergence of the econometrics model framework, theoretically discussed based on geographic space effect on the statistics of the convergence of possibility and feasibility. This article took the empirical analysis to study the economic growth convergence between year 2000-2008 in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone, with a whole and interior three sectors scale, discovery and classic convergence model into a geographic space effect, compared the analysis framework of space convergence, convergence speed and equation model goodness-of-fit all the more excellent. Geographical spatial spillover effect that economic growth in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone plays a convergence of the important role that not allow to ignore, also be its space club convergence, the key mechanism happened. This process of economic growth for late-developing regional resources sharing, factors to flow, mutual cooperation and coordinated development, has the important policy implications.