长春市木本植物春季物候对气候变化的响应

Responses of the Spring Phenology of Woody Plants to Climate Change in Changchun

根据中国物候观测网络长春观测站点的物候资料及国家气象中心提供的气象资料,采用相关分析、多元回归分析和数学模拟方法,分析了2003—2010年长春市木本植物春季物候与温度、日照、降水之间的相关关系,建立了模拟和预报4种木本植物开花始期的模型。结果表明:在各种气候因子中,温度对春季物候影响最大,日照、降水影响不显著;温度对春季物候影响集中在物候期前2个月,温度升高,春季物候期提前。春季物候期持续日数与1、2月份温度有关,分别与芽萌动期和展叶期成正相关和负相关。开花始期回归模型预测值与物候观测数值拟合较好,表明可以使用回归模型对长春几种木本开花期进行预测。

According to the phenology material of Chinese phenophase observation network in Changchun and the climate material offered by national meteorological center, correlation and stepwise regression analysis and mathematical simulation method were applied to investigate the impact of temperature, precipitation and sunshine on spring phenology of the woody plants during 2003-2010. The author established the simulative models of the flowing dates of 4 kinds of woody plants. The results showed that temperature was the major influence factor in spring phenology, and that precipitation and sunshine influenced spring phenology inconspicuously. The influence of temperature on spring phenology mainly concentrated in the previous 2 months of the spring phenology. With the temperature increasing, the phenophase advanced. The sustained days of spring phenology period was related with January and February temperature, which had a positive correlation and negative correlation with budding and leaf stage, respectively. The numerical fitting of the predicted values and the observed values was better, which showed that people could use the models to forecast the flowing dates for several kinds of woody plants in Changchun.