气候变化对中国农业生产影响的模拟评价进展

Advances of Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Crop Yield

气候变化对农业生产影响评价研究已成为众多学者和政府部门关注的热点问题。近几十年来,国内外学者从不同角度用不同方法开展了大量的气候变化对农业生产影响的评估研究。该文重点论述了利用模型模拟方法评价气候变化对中国农业生产、作物生长发育的影响,以及适应对策的最近研究进展,并简要地讨论了该领域研究存在的问题和今后有待进一步深入的研究内容。

The assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity has become a hot issue of many scientific researches, governments and public circles. In recent years, scientists carried out many quantitative studies of evaluation of climate change impact on agricultural system from different aspects and using different methods in this field. In this paper, we mainly addressed the recent advances in evaluation of climate change impacts on crop yields, crop growth and adaptation strategy using crop growth simulation model, and briefly discussed the research tendency and study work required to focus in the future.