江苏省冬小麦播种期对气候要素变化的响应

Response of sowing date of winter wheat to climate change in Jiangsu Province

利用江苏省35个气象台站1961—2009年冬小麦播种期内的气象观测资料,采用数理统计方法,分析了近49 a来冬小麦播种期内各气候要素的变化。结果表明:江苏省冬小麦主要播种期内的日平均气温随着时间的推移逐渐升高,且相关显著,其中淮河以南地区升高速度更快;秋季稳定通过15℃的终日总体呈逐年推迟趋势,尽管部分年际间波动较大;按传统播期播种到越冬的≥0℃有效积温与年序也呈极显著正相关关系。分析沭阳、淮安、盱眙、滨海、赣榆和徐州6个农业气象观测站的冬小麦发育期资料,及当地冬小麦播种至越冬前积温资料。结果表明:各地冬小麦播种至越冬≥0℃有效积温总体上逐年增加。此外,冬小麦播种期内降水量的波动较大,尤其自1990s中期以来,各地降水量呈逐年递减趋势。得出结论:江苏省冬小麦应适时晚播,并应趁墒及时播种。

With statistical method adopted, characteristics of climate change trend in the period of seedtime for winter wheat was analyzed based on the data of 35 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2009 over Jiangsu province. The results indicated that average daily temperature increased gradually in the main sowing period of winter wheat, especially in the south, and that the correlation reached significantlevel. The last date during which the average daily temperature steadily passed 15 ℃ in autumn had been delayed, although the serious inter-annual fluctuation existed. The effective accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ before over-wintering according to the traditional sowing also showed a highly significant increase, and the effective accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ before wintering obviously increased year by year at 6 stations （ Shuyang, Huaian, Xuyi, Binhai, Ganyu and Xuzhou） where over-wintering date had been recorded. On the other hand, the amount of precipitation in the period of seedtime fluctuated, especially since the mid 1990s, which had progressively decreased annually. In conclusion, winter wheat should be sowed properly later, and taking the advantage of proper soil moisture in Jiangsu province is also important.