基于IOWGA算子的铁路客运量组合预测

A Combination Prediction of Railway Passenger Volume Based on IOWGA Operators

科学准确地预测铁路客运量是制定铁路网规划的基础。以全国铁路客运量的历史数据为基础,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和三次指数平滑模型进行组合优化,建立了基于IOWGA(Induced Ordered Weighted GeometricAveraging)算子的组合预测模型,并对组合预测模型进行了检验,检验结果表明,组合预测模型是有效的、可靠的,具有较高的精度,可对我国的铁路客运量进行预测。最后利用所建立的预测模型预测了2008年--2010年我国铁路客运量。

Scientific and accurate prediction of the railway passenger Volume is a foundation for further design and setting - up of railway network. This paper is to set up, on the basis of the historical data of the total passenger volume in China, and using grey model 1.1 （GM1.1）and three exponential smoothing model, a combination prediction model based on IOWGA（Induced Ordered Weighted Geometric Averaging）operators, and it is also tested in the paper. The results show that the new model is effective, reliable and accurate, and it can be used to predict the railway passenger volume in China. And the passenger volumes from 2008 to 2010 were also checked by employing this newly set- up model in the paper.