摘要
科学的旅游预测是促进旅游业可持续发展的重要保障,文章将灰色系统相关理论与旅游业相结合,简要介绍了灰色系统GM(1,1)预测模型,并将其运用于区域旅游市场预测中,以海南省为例进行了预测,并获得了较好的预测效果.
Scientific forecasting of tourism market is important for sustainable development of tourism.The grey system theory and GM（1,1）grey forecasting model are briefly analyzed in this paper,and combining with the characteristics of the tourism system,grey forecasting model GM（1,1）is applied to the regional tourism market forecasting.Finally,an ex ample of Hainan Province is taken to illustrate the application of the model with satisfactory results obtained.
出处
《海南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2011年第4期458-461,共4页
Journal of Hainan Normal University（Natural Science）
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71161008)
关键词
灰色理论
GM(1
1)模型
海南
旅游市场
预测
Grey system theory
GM（1
1）model
Hainan province
Tourism Market
Forecasting
