人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型构建与应用——以陕西省为例

Construction and Application of Dynamic Model for Optimal Retirement Age under Change in Population Age Structure:A Case of Shaanxi Province

文章主要以社会福利最大化为基本前提,假定社会福利最大化条件下的退休年龄为最优平均退休年龄,通过建立人口年龄结构变动下的最优退休年龄动态模型,以陕西省人口数据和养老保险相关数据为基础,测算了社会福利最大化条件下的陕西省最优平均退休年龄。得出结论:满足社会福利最大化时,陕西省最优平均退休年龄将会从2010年的58.4岁,逐步提高到2020年的59.6岁,进而提高到2030年的61.3岁。

With the basic premise of maximization in social welfare, this article set an assumption that the retirement age is the optimal average retirement age under the conditions of maximization in social welfare. Through establishing the dynamic model for optimal retirement age under change in population age structure and taking Shaanxi Province as an example, this paper has taken measurements and calculates of the optimal average retirement age in Shaanxi Province under the conditions of maximization in social welfare. From which, some conclusion can be drawn that the optimal average retirement age in Shaanxi Province will be from 58.4 in 2010 to 59.6 in 2020,finally up to 61.3 in 2030 under the conditions of maximization in social welfare.