广州市建设用地集约利用评价与预警研究

Evaluation and Precaution of Urban Land Intensive Use in Guangzhou

城市土地集约利用是缓解我国土地供需矛盾的关键手段,然而如何衡量土地集约利用却是一个困难而重要的问题。本文通过归纳国内外相关研究成果,建立了适宜广州市的建设用地集约利用综合评价指标体系,运用因子分析法,计算广州市建设用地集约度指数,然后采用模糊综合评判法进行分类预警研究,结果表明:广州市城市用地集约度呈不规则的曲线上升趋势,从1990年的-1.27增加到2007年的1.90,上升趋势比较明显。其上升曲线拟合方程为Y=-1.367+0.144t+0.02t2,预测2015年集约度为2.07,2020年集约度为5.39,均处于无警水平。

Intensive development is the way to solve China＇s current problems of land conflict between supply and demand in the process of rapid urbanization and achieving sustainable development. According to the preceding researches, this paper sets up the evaluation index system of the intensive use which is fit to Guangzhou city. Through adopting the method of gene analytical to calculate the degree of membership for each land use grade, the results showed that the degree of intensive use in Guangzhou changed between -1.27 to 1.90 from 1990 to 2007. At the same time, the simulating curve equation which is Y=-1.367＋0.144t＋0.02t^2 was obtained through choosing from different models using SPSS software, and the urban land intensive use degree was forecast to be 2.07 in 2015 and 5.39 in 2020 from the equation. Both of them are in naught alarming grade.