摘要
本文选取2008年1月9日至2010年12月31日之间期货价格和现货价格数据,运用传统回归模型(OLS)、双变量向量自回归模型(B-VAR)、误差修正套期保值模型(ECM)、误差修正GARCH模型(EC-GARCH)对样本数据进行平稳性和协整关系检验,在估计最小风险套期保值比率的基础上发现:(1)我国黄金期货市场运行三年多来,通过黄金期货市场进行套期保值是有效的,可以较为明显地降低参与者面临的价格波动风险;(2)在具体进行套期保值操作时,应该根据套期保值时限长短的不同和预期效果的差异,采用不同的模型来合理确定自身的套期保值比例。在此基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。
Based on the data of futures prices and spot prices trom January 9, 2008 to December41, 2010, the paper uses traditional regression model (OLS), two-variable vector auto regression model (B-VAR), error correction model (ECM) and error correction GARCH model (EC- GARCH). Results show that.. (1) hedging through the gold futures contracts is effective, which can significantly reduce the participants' risk of price fluctuation; (2)hedging ratio should be determined by different models according to the length of time and different expectations. The paper also made some proposals based on the conclusions.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期50-56,122,共8页
Finance & Trade Economics