管理者过度自信对并购绩效的影响——基于群体决策视角的分析和实证

The Impact of Manager's Over-confidence on M&A Performances—An Analytical and Empirical Research Based on Group Decision Making Perspective

我国公司决策更多的是群体而非个体决策,群体决策强化还是弱化了过度自信偏差?本文从群体决策的层面研究了管理者的过度自信对公司并购绩效的影响。摈弃传统公司并购理论中的管理者理性假设,从行为公司金融理论出发,以我国422家上市发行A股的并购公司为样本进行了实证分析和研究。结果表明:群体决策中的管理者普遍存在着过度自信;管理者过度自信与并购长期绩效显著负相关;与短期绩效也负相关,但在统计上不显著。最后,根据分析结果提出了克服或减少管理者决策偏差行为的若干可行的举措。

Most of the China＇s corporate decision-making are group deeision-making rather than individual. Will group decision-making strengthen or weaken the overconfidence bias？ This paper studies the impact of managers＇ over-confidence on company＇s M＆A performances from the group decision-making perspective. Rejection of the traditional corporate M＆A theories which regard managers as rational. We make an analytical and empirical research from the behavior of corporate finance theory which take China＇s 422 listed and issuing A shares companies for our samples. Results show that： Managers are prevalence of over-confidence in group decision making. There are significantly negative correlation be- tween managers over-confidence and long-term M＆A performances. Though the correlation between managers over-confidence and short-term M＆A performances are also negative, statistically not significant. Finally, Based on results of this analysis, Give some alternative initiatives to overcome or reduce the manager＇s decision deviant behavior.