信贷量经济效应的期限结构研究

A Study on the Economic Effects of Credit Term Structure

银行信贷和经济波动的关系一直是理论和实务界关注的焦点,过去国内的研究大多仅从信贷总量层面入手而忽视了结构效应,这不利于厘清信贷在经济中的作用机理。在将贷款按期限划分为短期贷款和中长期贷款后,本文通过应用一个小型DSGE模型,发现短期贷款对经济增长虽有短期的促进作用,但却形成通货膨胀压力;而中长期贷款对经济增长有长期的促进作用,同时对通货膨胀有一定的抑制作用。以我国1998-2010年的宏观数据为样本进行的FAVAR检验支持了上述观点。该结论一方面意味着信贷政策及其监管应加强对信贷期限结构的关注,另一方面结合我国近年来中长期贷款比重大幅上升的客观事实,也从一个新的视角解释了货币信贷加速扩张的同时,价格水平却较为稳定的"中国货币之谜"。

The relationship between bank credit and economic fluctuations is always the focus of theory and practice.In the past,most domestic research only started from the total amount of credit and ignored the effects of structure,which couldn＇t help us to clarify the role of credit in the economy.After dividing the loan into short-term loan and medium and long-term loan,this paper constructs a small DSGE model to find that short-term loan has short-term stimulative effect to economic growth while it causes the inflation,medium and long-term loan has long-term positive effect to economic growth and restrains the inflation to some extent.Setting the macro data of 1998-2010 as a sample,the FAVAR tests support the above view.On the one hand,this conclusion means that the credit policy and regulation should strengthen the focus of credit term structure.On the other hand,for the proportion of medium and long-term loan increased substantially in recent years,from a new perspective,the conclusion explains ＂the mystery of the Chinese currency＂ which refers to the accelerating expansion of money and credit exists with the relatively stable price level.