2000年浙江森林资源动态趋势预测

Prediction of the Developing Tendency of Forest Resources in Zhejiang Province by A. D. 2000

本文运用随机变量描述森林资源动态,视影响森林资源变化因素为输入变量,建立预测模型,应用Kalman滤波对森林资源动态进行预测。模型经检验与实际调查值吻合良好。预测结果:到2000年浙江全省森林资源动态趋势大体稳定而稍有增长。

Applying radom variables to description of the dynamic state of forest resources, a forecasting model in which the factors affecting forest resources are regarded as import variables is established, and the dynamic state of forest resources is predicted by means of Kalman filter method. The calculating values of the model fit in well with fact findings. The prediction results show that the forest resources of Zhejiang province will be stable on the whole and slightly increasing by A. D. 2000.