摘要
在北京郊区黑杨林地内设置固定样地,进行杨树黑斑病Marssonina brunnea病原菌孢子捕捉和病情调查。运用数量化理论I系统分析了病情指数与气象因子之间的关系,结果表明:当平均气温20～28℃、平均相对湿度80%以上、降雨量为60 mm以上时,杨树黑斑病的病情发展迅速。同时建立了杨树黑斑病的数量化测报模型:^yi=-5.236 1x(1,1)+7.388 4x(1,2)-3.045 7x(1,3)-6.231 5x(2,1)-4.540 9x(2,2)+6.261 8x(2,3)+20.496 3x(2,4)+1.146 6x(3,1)+3.613 4x(3,2)+7.025 7x(3,3)+19.680 2x(3,4)。对测报模型检验的预测精度在88.49%～96.43%之间。
The spore trap and investigation of poplar black spot disease was conducted in the＂ fixed sam- piing plots in the Populus simonii x P. nigra nursery in Beijing and the relationship between the disease index and the meteorological factors was analyzed with quantitative theory I. The result showed when the mean temperature was 20-28℃, the mean relative humidity wa above 80% and the rainfall was above 60 mm,poplar black spot disease would occur seriously. The quantitative theory forecast model [y,= -5.2361x（1,1） ＋7.3884x（1,2） -3.0457x（1,3） -6.2315x（2,1） -4.5409x（2,2） ＋ 6. 2618X （2,3） ＋ 20. 4963x （2,4） ＋ 1.1466x （ 3,1 ） ＋ 3.6134x （ 3,2 ） ＋ 7. 0257x （ 3,3 ） ＋ 19. 6802x （ 3, 4） ] was established to predict the occurrence of this disease. The reliability of the forecast model was 88.49% -96. 43%.
出处
《中国森林病虫》
北大核心
2012年第1期5-8,共4页
Forest Pest and Disease
关键词
杨树黑斑病
病情指数
测报模型
poplar black spot
disease index
forecast model
