城市化进程中我国城乡居民的长期粮食需求

An Study on the Long-term Food Needs of Urban and Rural Residents in China's Urbanization Process

采用AIDS模型量化研究了城乡居民的食物消费特征,从城市化和中长期营养目标的角度出发,考查城乡居民消费习惯和年龄结构的差异,预测未来十年(2011-2020)我国城乡居民口粮消费总量。综合居民口粮、饲料粮、工业用粮的结果预测未来十年我国整体粮食需求。根据预测,未来我国粮食将在2018年第一次出现供求缺口,到2020稍稍超过5%的粮食安全警戒线,并且有继续扩大的趋势。

AIDS model is applied to research the structure of food consumption.From the perspective of urbanization and long-term nutrition goals,and considering the differences of cultural and age structure between urban and rural citizens,we predict the sum of rations consumption in 10 years（2011-2020）.According to the forecast including rations,feed grain,industrial uses,the demand and supply gap will be first appear in 2018,and in 2020,slightly break more than 5% of the food security cordon,and have the tendency to continue to expand.