人口流动、增量预算与地方公共品的拥挤效应

Immigration,Incremental Budget and the Congestion of Local Public Goods

人口流动会给地方财政收支行为带来多重影响。本文通过一个包含人口流动因素的地方公共品需求决策模型,对中国目前的地方公共品供求失衡关系进行了实证考察,研究发现地方公共支出存在着显著的惯性特征。地方公共品需求的税收价格弹性大于零,这种反常结果可能正表明地方公共服务消费中的户籍歧视会加剧地方公共品的供求失衡问题。行政管理服务的拥挤程度总体上要高于文教卫服务,且在东部省份的行政管理服务的拥挤程度更高,这反映目前地方公共服务的消费壁垒主要是在教育、卫生和福利转移等具有排他性的公共服务项目上。本文的研究为中国的规范地方政府预算制度、加大地区间横向财政转移提供了一个直接的经验证据。

Immigration will bring muhiple effects to the local fiscal revenue and expenditure. This paper empirically stud- ies the imbalance between supply and demand of local public goods in China through the local public goods demand decisionmaking model which contains immigration factors. The results show there are significant inertia characteristics in public expend- itures. The tax price elasticity of the local public goods demand is obviously positive. This anomalous result may reveal the household discrimination in the consumption of local public services will aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand of local public goods problem. The congestion level of administration services is higher than the one of the cultural and educational health services. And the eastern provinces have a higher degree of the administrative management services congestion. This reflects the current barriers to the consumption of local public services lie mainly in education, health and the welfare transfer such exclusive public services items. This paper offers direct empirical evidence on how to improve local government budgeting system and on the reform of increasing horizontal fiscal transfers between regions.