基于学习效应的光伏发电发展策略分析

Analysis on the Strategy of Development of PV Power Generation Based on Learning Effect

运用学习曲线模型和马克维茨投资组合理论,构建了由火电、水电、风电、核电和光伏发电五种发电技术组成的能源组合模型,对能源组合中光伏发电发展现状和发展前景进行了分析和预测。结果表明,对光伏发电未来发展而言,学习效应具有降低能源组合成本和组合风险的双重作用,学习率高低对光伏发电规模化过程中的学习成本和盈利能力有明显影响,高学习率下的学习成本小,盈利能力强。据此,可以通过充分发挥和增强产业学习效应来加速光伏产业的发展。

By use of the learning curve model and Markowitz portfolio theory, we build portfolio models of power sources including coal - fired power, hydro power, onshore wind power, nuclear power and solar PV power. When making analysis and prediction on the present situation and development perspective of PV power generation in the portfolio, we find that as for the future development of solar PV power generation, the learning effect has a dual role to reduce the power portfolio cost and portfolio risk. The magnitude of the learning ratio imposes a distinct impact on the learning cost and earning capacity in the going - to - scale process of the PV power generation. At the high learning ratio, the learning cost is small, and the earning capacity is strong. Accordingly, the development of the PV industry can be sped up by intensifying the learning effect and bringing it into full Dlay.