我国粮食进出口与粮食价格关系的实证研究——基于粮食安全的角度

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between China's Grain International Trade and Domestic and Foreign Grain Prices Based on the Perspective of Food Security

基于2003年1月～2011年8月的月度时间序列,采用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等实证方法,从粮食安全的角度,研究我国粮食进出口与国际国内价格之间的关系。结果表明:我国粮食市场与国际粮食市场之间存在着联系,但并不是非常紧密;我国粮食进出口并不能影响国际市场的粮食价格,进口和出口都不存在"大国效应",其变动对国内粮食价格的影响十分有限,但无论国际粮食价格还是国内粮食价格的变动都会影响我国粮食出口。因此,我国可适当降低国内粮食自给率,加大粮食进口,进一步利用国际市场保障国内粮食安全。

Based on the monthly time series from January 2003 to August 2011, and using the empirical methods such as cointegration analysis and Granger causality test, the paper analyzes the relationship between China＇s grain international trade and the grain prices of domestic and foreign markets from the perspective of food security. The results show that ： first, there is a link between China＇s grain market and the international grain market, but this link is not very close; second, China＇s grain imports and exports do not affect the international grain prices, and there is not a ＂big country effect＂ existing in China＇s imports and exports; third, the impact of China＇s grain imports and exports on the domestic grain prices is very limited; fourth, the changes of international and domestic grain prices both affect China＇s grain exports. Therefore, China can lower its domestic food self-sufficiency rate appropriately, increase its grain imports, and make use of the international market to protect its domestic grain security.