中国农业“人口红利”正在消失——基于随机前沿模型的检验

The Disappearing Demographic Dividend in China's Agriculture:A Test by Stochastic Frontier Approach

本文运用了随机前沿分析方法,根据全国三十个省、直辖市和自治区1990-2009年的省级面板数据对中国农业劳动力的利用率进行了估算。主要估算结果包括:1、中国农业劳动力利用率增长显著,从1990年全国平均68.1%上升到2009年全国平均84%。这说明我国农业劳动力虽仍有剩余,但向其他产业转移空间已经不大。如果延续目前劳动力利用率的增长速度,"人口红利"对经济增长的推动作用将在几年内消失;2、各地区的劳动力利用率及其变动趋势有明显差异,表明不同地区对"人口红利"的贡献有所不同;3、在1990-2009年期间中国农业产出的平均就业弹性趋近于零。

By using stochastic frontier approach and based on the inter-provincial panel data of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 1990 to 2009, the paper estimates the labor use ratio in China＇s agriculture. The results show that the labor use ratio in China agriculture has been increasing from 68.1% of 1990 to 84% of 2009. Though there is still a small labor surplus in China＇s agriculture and not many can be shifted to non-agricultural sectors. On the whole the demographic dividend to China＇s agriculture is to be entirely disappear within years, while the labor use ratio and its changes differs in different provinces and the demographic dividend contributes agriculture growth differently in deferent areas. To be worse, the average employment elasticity of agriculture in China has been approaching to zero in the past two decades.