国际市场中铀的价格变化规律及对我国核电发展的启示

The Mechanism of Uranium Price in Global Market and Some Advices on China Nuclear Power Development

运用古典经济学供求关系基本理论框架,以铀产量和核电反应堆作为国际市场上铀供需双方的代表性指标,对铀的价格变动机制展开定量分析。研究发现铀并未受到其高放射性影响,在国际市场上表现出了与普通商品相同的价格规律,影响铀价格的供给因素主要是铀的产量,需求因素主要是正在运行的和在建的核电站反应堆的数量。同时,预计的铀需求因素对铀的价格影响显著而灵敏。根据实证研究的结论,提出我国核电发展应该提前关注影响铀价格变化的因素,建立国家铀资源储备,积极推动国际铀市场结构变化以及做好铀发展规划信息的保密工作等相关对策建议。

Based on the classic supply and demand theory of economics,the paper analyzes the price mechanism of uranium in the global market with uranium production and the number of nuclear reactors as typical indicators of supply and demand.Despite the high radioactivity,the uranium shows the same law with common goods in the international market.To uranium,the key supply factor is uranium production,and the main demand factor is the number of nuclear reactors.In addition,the proposed construction plan of nuclear reactor has an important and direct effect to the uranium price.According to the experimental results mentioned above,the thesis puts forward some advice,such as paying attention to drive factors in advance,constructing national uranium resource inventory,facilitating the change of global uranium market structure,and enhancing the information security work.