我国货币供给与经济增长、房地产价格关系研究

The Research of Relationship among Money Supply and Economic Growth and the Housing Price

基于1999—2010年季度数据,采用协整分析和误差修正模型对货币供给、经济增长、房地产价格进行研究。结果表明,在长期内货币供给和房地产价格对经济增长都存在促进作用,并且货币非中性;在短期内,货币供给和房地产价格对经济增长也存在促进作用。另外,误差修正模型也表明,三者之间是相互影响的,同时也受自身和另外两个因素滞后期的影响。

This paper uses cointegation,VEC model methods to research the relationship among money supply,economic growth and the housing price based on the data from 1999 Q1 to 2010 Q4.The result shows that the money supply and housing price have positive effect on the economic growth in the long time,and that the money supply is non-neutral.And in the short time they also improve the economic growth.Besides,VEC model shows that three varied impact each other,and impacted by the laggings.