财务危机预测模型的构建

Construction of the financial crisis forecasting model

基于Logistic回归模型,选取中国制造业上市公司作为样本对财务危机预测进行研究。从企业的盈利能力、营运能力、偿债能力、成长能力、现金流量等方面出发,选取了10个财务预警指标,经过回归分析得出,总资产收益率、总资产周转率、资产负债率、主营业务增长率、经营活动现金净流量对负债的比率五项财务指标对上市公司发生财务危机有重要影响。从而提出要从提高盈利能力、提升营运能力、增强偿债能力、提高成长能力、保障现金流的充足几方面来应对财务危机。

Based on the Logistic model according to the Logistic,select by examinations the Chinese manufacturing industry listed company to be the sample to carry on the research to the finance crisis estimate.From the profit ability of the business enterprise,operate ability,repay debt the ability and grow up the ability,the cash discharge...etc.to set out,select by examinations 10 index signs with early-warning finance,pass by back to return the analysis the clean discharge of a total property rate of return,total property rate of turnover,property liabilities rate,main camp business growth rate,the management movable cash takes place to the listed company to five finance index signs of ratio of the liabilities the finance crisis contain important influence.Puting forward ample and several aspects that want to be from the exaltation profit ability and promoted the operation ability,strengthenning the ability of repay debt,raised the ability of grow up and guaranteed the cash to flow to reply the finance crisis.