超Poisson方差模型对人免疫缺陷病毒流行聚集性的研究

Super Poisson variance model for the study of aggregation of the human immunodeficiency virus epidemic

目的定量分析人免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)流行在空间和人群两个层面聚集性随时间变化的趋势。方法结合重庆市HIV疫情数据,分别拟合超Poisson方差模型和多水平超Poisson方差模型,计算不同年度超方差系数,绘制系数变化曲线。结果 1994～2009年间,HIV人群聚集方差系数和空间聚集方差系数均随时间推移逐步增大。结论 HIV流行的人口聚集性和空间聚集性在逐渐升高。

Objective To quantitatively analyse the clustering trends of of human immunodeficiency virus （HIV）prevalence in space and populations over time. Methods Chongqing HIV epidemic data were fitted over Poisson variance model and multi-level super-Poisson variance model. The coefficients of super variance of different years were calculated, and curves of the coefficient changes over times were drawn. Results Both super variance coefficients of space and populations increased gradually over time from 1994 to 2009. Conclusion The clustering trend of HIV prevalence in Chongqing gradually increased.