主权信用评级影响因素的长短期效应检验及对策——评级下调冲击经济的非对称效应启示

Short and Long Term Effect Tests on Influencing Factors of Sovereign Credit Rating and Relevant Countermeasures:Implications from Asymmetric Effect in Economic Impact Due to Rating Downgrade

国际资本的正常流动能促进一国经济的健康发展,而大幅度的流入流出对东道国经济安全会产生负面的冲击,主权信用评级是影响国际资本流动的主要因素。主权信用评级对国际资本流向的非对称效应,在评级下调时国际资本大幅流出,特别是在世界金融危机的背景下,会对一个国家的经济产生极大的危害。本文运用计量经济方法挖掘影响主权信用评级的主要因素,检验这些因素的长短期效应,有利于政策制定者制定长期政策维护和提升评级等级,制定短期调控政策抑制短期非正常冲击,确保一国经济的持续、稳定和健康发展。

The normal international capital flows can promote healthy development of a country＇s economy,while a substantial inflow and outflow will have a negative impact on the security of the host country＇s economy.Sovereign credit rating is a major factor influencing international capital flows.Its asymmetric effects on international capital flows,that is,rating downgrade will cause a sharp outflow of international capital,will do great harm to a country＇s economy particularly in the context of world financial crisis.This dissertation applies econometric methods to grasp the main influencing factors of sovereign credit rating,and tests short and long effect of these factors.It is conducive to policy-makers to lay down long-term policies so as to maintain and enhance rating level,and to formulate short-term regulation policies to inhibit short-term non-normal impact,which supposes to ensure a sustained,stable and healthy development for a country＇s economy.