人民币实际有效汇率对地区经济增长差异的影响研究

A study on the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate on the differences in regional economic growth

本文基于凯恩斯宏观经济模型,对人民币实际有效汇率波动对我国各地区经济增长产生的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率上升通过影响进出口、外商直接投资和原始货币供应量三个途径,对我国各地区经济增长普遍存在着抑制效应;但对不同地区的影响程度有所差异,其中东部地区最大,西部地区最小;这表明人民币实际有效汇率上升对于缩小近年来不断拉大的地区经济增长差距具有积极作用。虽然缩小地区经济发展差距是现阶段我国构建和谐社会的重要内容,但人民币汇率政策依然应该将实现内外均衡作为自己的核心目标,以避免目标多样化而弱化政策效应。

Based on Keynesian macroeconomic model, we conduct empirical study on the impact of RMB real effective ex- change rate on economic growth in China＇ s various regions. The results show that： generally, the rise of RMB real effective ex- change rate has constraint effects on China＇ s regional economic growth through three paths, import and export, FDI and original money supply. However, it has different impact on different regions, among which the east area face the greatest influence while the west has the minimal. That suggests that the rise of RMB real effective exchange rate has positive impact on shortening the ever - expanding gap of economic growth among the regions. Although shortening the gap of regional economic growth is an im- portant content of constructing harmonious society at present, RMB exchange rate policy should include inside - outside equilibrium as the core objective so as to avoid the diversity of goals and weaken policy effects.