基于耕地压力指数的云南粮食产能安全动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Grain Security Based on Cropland Pressure Index in Yunnan Province

运用灰色系统模型,在分析1 949-2008年云南省人口、耕地和粮食产量动态变化的基础上,分别按温饱型、小康型和富裕型粮食消费水平对最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行分析和预测,从而对未来云南粮食产能安全态势进行评估。研究表明:2000年以来,最小人均耕地面积呈波动变化,但总体有下降趋势;耕地压力指数K也呈波动变化,变幅在1.03-1.1 1之间。根据预测结果,在未来25年内,无论按何类粮食消费水平计算,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数都呈下降趋势,耕地所提供的粮食能满足全省居民温饱型和小康型的粮食消费水平,但要达到富裕型粮食消费的压力较大。

By using grey system model and based on the dynamic analysis of population, cropland area and grain output in Yunnan Province between 1949 and 2008, this paper analyzed and forecasted the minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index separately according to warm-and-full, well-to-do and richness levels of food consumption to achieve the evaluation for situation of food security production in future. The result shows that： since 2000, minimum cropland acreage per capita was fluctuated, but the overall tendency was showing downward. Cropland pressure index was also fluctuated and the amplitude was from 1.03 to 1.11. In the next 25 years,minimum cropland acreage per capita and cropland pressure index show downward calculated by whatever levels of food consumption. Grain provided by food can meet food consumption levels of warm-and-full and well-to-do. However, it＇s stressful to achieve richness food consumption level.