基于正态云模型和熵权的人口发展现代化程度综合评价

Comprehensive Assessment on Population Development Degree of ModernizationBased on Normal Cloud Model and Entropy Weight

为有效地监测和评估人口发展现代化程度,实现人口、经济、环境协调发展,探索和构建了人口发展程度综合评价模型。针对人口发展过程中存在的模糊性和随机性问题,建立了基于正态云模型和熵权的综合评判模型。借鉴已有理论的基础上,综合考虑人口总量、人口结构等5个方面因素构建人口综合发展现代化程度指标体系,采用熵权法确定各个指标权重,借助于正态云模型定量描述单指标条件下待评价我国人口发展的等级。云模型是表示某个定性概念与定量表示之间不确定性转换的模型,它将概念的模糊性和随机性结合在一起,对解决不确定性问题具有很强的鲁棒性。采用云模型理论实现评语与评估指标值之间的不确定映射,保留了评估过程中的随机性和模糊性。最后,以2000-2009年我国10年人口发展相关指标的时间序列数据,以及2009年全国和四个直辖市的人口综合发展截面数据为例,对人口发展现代化程度进行实证检验,结果表明,该模型比传统的模糊综合法能得到更加合理的评估结果。

In order to monitor and evaluate the population development degree of modernization and realize the coordinated development of population, economy and environment, the development of population evaluation model based on the normal cloud model and entropy theory was presented to solve the fuzzy and random problem in the development process of population. Using existing theoretical approaches, a total of five assessment indexes were considered, such as gross population, population composition, etc. The entropy weight method was used to compute the evaluation factors＇ weights, and the normal cloud model was used to describe the grade of development of populatioh under single index. The cloud model is a mathematical representation of fuzziness and randomness,it can realize the transformation between the qualitative when the fuzziness and randomness are integrated together, it has strong robustness for the uncertain question. The method keeps the random and fuzzy in evaluation. Finally, a case study using the method was implemented in the time series data about population development index of China in the past 10 years （2000- 2009 ） and the cross-section data in 2009 to appraise population integrated development condition of the whole nation and of the four municipalities. Compared with the fuzzy evaluation method, the model achieves the right evaluation result.