银行卡的替代效应及其对狭义货币需求的影响分析

The Substitution Effect of Bank Cards and Its Impact on the Demand for Narrow Money

本文首先研究了我国银行卡支付额对现金的替代效应,并进一步分析了银行卡支付额对狭义货币需求的影响。研究发现:随着近年来我国银行卡产业的蓬勃发展,银行卡支付总额猛增,银行卡支付额与现金流通量之间呈指数替代关系,并建立了银行卡支付额对现金替代效应的非线性模型;银行卡支付额对狭义货币需求量的影响也是非线性的,并利用非参数局部多项式拟合建立了部分线性回归模型。这两个模型在这类研究中是首次提出,并有很好的解释作用。

This paper studies the effect of payment by bank card instead of cash in China, and further analyzes the impact of bank card payment on the demand for narrow money. We find that the rapid development of China＇s banking card industry in recent years has brought about a sharp increase in the payment by bank card. Given the exponential relationship between bank card payment and cash in circulation, we establish a non-linear model showing the substitution of bank card for cash. Also, the impact of bank card payment on the demand for narrow money is non-linear, and we use non-parametric local polynomial fitting to establish a partially linear regression model. The two models are used for the first time for these studies and prove to be very interpretative.