制度因素对我国国际储备的惯性影响

Influence of Institution's Habit Formation to China's Foreign Reserve

本文在缓冲储备理论中引入了习惯形成因素,在BS模型的基础上构造了一个既包括国际收支波动性和机会成本同时又考虑了习惯形成因素的动态调整模型。利用1996-2009年间中国国际储备的月度数据进行了实证分析,结果表明:(1)一国国际储备是国际收支不确定性和机会成本的函数,它们三者之间存在长期均衡关系,也就是说BS理论预期模型在经过适当的修正后对中国外汇储备规模的实证研究是适用的。(2)习惯形成参数越大,以往的制度因素形成的惯性对后期储备积累的影响就越大,国际收支不确定性以及机会成本对储备的影响也越小,并且这个惯性一旦形成,很难立刻改变。(3)正是由于考虑了习惯形成因素,外汇储备规模关于国际收支不确定性的弹性以及机会成本的弹性更接近于BS模型的理论预期值。

The paper incorporates buffer stock model with habit formation and builds a dynamic model which contains both international payment volatility and habit formation factors. Empirical studies using survey data of ehina＇s foreign reserve from 1996 to 2009 show that： （1） a county＇s foreign reserve is a function of international payment＇s uncertainty and opportunity cost, whereas there exits a long term equilibrium among the three factors mentioned above, that is to say BS foreign reserve prediction model holds good for China. （2） the bigger the parameter of habit formation becomes, the more reserve will accumulate and the less impact international payment volatility will have on reserve. （3） It is because habit formation is taken into account that the estimated elasticity of reserve holdings with respect to international payment volatility and opportunity cost becomes extremely close to the predictions of the theoretical model.