危机冲击与中国贸易“超调式”震荡的经验分析

Crisis Shocks and Empirical Analysis on Excessive Volatility of China’s Foreign Trade

从总量层面、贸易国别层面以及BEC产品类别层面,对本轮全球金融危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的波动情况进行了分析。结果表明,中国进、出口贸易不仅在总量层面上表现出十分显著的"超调式"震荡特征,而且"超调式"震荡特征有着显著的贸易国别差异性和产品类别差异性。综合分析后发现,本轮危机冲击下中国进、出口贸易的"超调式"震荡与当代国际分工的演进以及中国在全球分工中的定位有关。据此得到启示:一方面,不应过分夸大贸易波动可能引发的风险进而转向所谓"内需主导型"发展模式,另一方面,缓解危机冲击下贸易大幅震荡应从构建国家价值链入手。

From aspects of total trade value, trade partners and commodity categories, this paper gives empirical analysis on volatility of China＇ s foreign trade under the background of global financial crisis. Results show that volatility of China＇ s foreign trade not only exhibit obvious excessive features in total trade value, but also has distinguished difference between trade partners and com- modity categories. Comprehensive analysis finds that, the excessive volatility of China＇ s foreign trade can be explained from the evolution of international specialization and China＇ s position in it. Accordingly, this paper argues, on one hand, we should not exaggerate the risks of trade volatility so that transfer China ＇ s economic development to so-called internal demand oriented pattern, on the other hand, to mitigate trade volatility should be in terms of constructing domestic value chain.