“合成谬误”之谬——中国—东盟自由贸易区一周年的实证分析

Fallacy of "Fallacy of Composition Argument":An Empirical Study on Effects of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Anniversary

中国—东盟自由贸易区正式实施以来,双方贸易额有了大幅增长。帕克(Park,1989)命题认为:合成谬误将在中国与东盟四国率先出现。本文提出了两个核心假说:第一,贸易竞争会导致结构调整和生产分工;第二,结构调整和生产分工会导致贸易互补。并根据可获得的各种统计资料,运用实证分析的方法和各种判定指标对帕克命题进行了判定。

After China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was officially implemented on January 1st, 2010, the bilateral trade has increased greatly. Park claimed that ＂the fallacy of composition＂ would take place in East Asia first in 1989. This paper raises two hypotheses： First, trade competitiveness can bring about structural adjustment and result in specialization; Second, structural adjustment and specialization lead to trade complementarity. The paper takes China and ASEAN4 as the sample to make an empirical study on the effects, and tests these two hypotheses with all sorts of available statistics. Finally it testifies that the Park＇ s prop- osition is false.