现代物流与对外贸易关系的实证研究——基于浙江省1986-2009年的数据

Empirical Analysis on Relationship between Modern Logistics and Foreign Trade:Based on Zhejiang 1986-2009 Data

本文基于时间序列模型,利用浙江省1986-2009年的货物运输量、港口货物吞吐量、进出口总额和地区生产总值数据,运用协整理论和格兰杰(Granger)因果检验对浙江省现代物流与对外贸易关系进行了实证分析。结果表明两者之间存在着长期稳定的关系,进一步的分析发现货物吞吐量与进出口总额之间存在单向因果关系;并在此基础上对浙江省发展现代物流和促进对外贸易增长提出了相关建议。

Based on data including freight transportation, port cargo, total value of imports and exports, gross domestic product from 1986 to 2009, this paper analyses the relationship between modem logistics and foreign trade by cointegration theory and granger causality test. And the conclusion shows that the relationship between modem logistics and foreign trade is stable from long term perspectives. Meanwhile, there is one-way causal relationship between freight transportation and total value of imports and exports. In the end, proposals for improving modem logistics and foreign trade of Zhejiang province are put forward.