当前全球矿业形势分析与展望

An analysis and outlook for global mining

全球矿业发展与工业化进程密切相关,具有与全球经济发展周期基本一致的显著的周期性特征。在同一个周期内,各种资源需求在时间上具有波次(递进)性,它决定着矿业的持续与繁荣。从2003开始全球矿业进入了第3个周期,其特征包括矿业产业集中度加剧、垄断特征更加显著、矿产品低成本时代终结等。同时,这一时期出现了大量国际金融资本进入矿产品市场的现象,使得矿产品价格体系趋于复杂化。从中长期来看,中国、印度、非洲等新兴经济体工业化、城镇化进程不会停滞,刚性资源需求将推动此轮超级周期继续前行。从中短期来看,欧美债务危机继续升级恶化,中东格局正发生着重大变化,全球经济二次探底风险愈发增大。在全球经济增长不如预期、矿产品需求下降、新增矿山产能释放和矿产品价格进入新一轮调整阶段的情况下,未来一段时期内,全球矿业形势将表现为"需求放缓、价格高位、震荡加剧"。

Global mining, characterized by its obvious periodic features, is closely related to industrialization process. The cycle of min- ing industry was consistent with that of global economic development. Demand for resources is progressive in terms of time, which determines the continuous prosperity of mining industry. The shifting of center of global mining happened with that of global industri- alization. Global mining has entered into the third cycle since 2003, in which industrial concentration has been strengthened, monopoly characteristics become more noticeable, and low-cost era of minerals came to an end. The entry of financial Capital into mineral commodity market makes mineral commodity price system more complicated. In medium-and-long-term, industrialization and urbanization of new emerging countries, such as China, India and African countries will not be a standstill, and rigid demand for resources will push the super cycle of mining industry forward. In medium-and-short-term, Euro-US debt crisis keep worsening, and middle-east situation is undergoing great changes. The risk of double dip of global economy is increasing, the recovery of global economy does not live up to expectations, and the demand for minerals is decreasing. Opening of new mine capacities resulted in a new adjustment phase of mineral prices. Global mining can be characterized by ＂weak demand, higher price, volatility intensifying＂ for some time to come.