2011—2012年中国宏观经济分析与预测——复苏放缓、风险上扬与结构刚性冲击下的中国宏观经济

CHINA'S MACRO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST:2011—2012——Impacted by Sluggish Recovery,Risk Augments and Structure Rigidity

本文通过全面总结2011年中国宏观经济的3大表现,利用中国人民大学宏观经济预测模型,指出2012年中国将面临外部经济放缓、内部房地产市场深度调整、泡沫经济逆转以及金融风险加剧的冲击,但在结构刚性的约束下,政府将全面转变政策定位,从而保证中国经济在加速回落中实现反弹,全年经济增长呈现"前低后缓"的模式。

The paper comprehensively summarized up three predominant characteristics of China＇s macroeconomic performance in 2011 and utilized the macroeconomic forecasting model created by Renmin University of China for economic projection. Then it drew a conclusion： China would suffer tremendous impact from sluggish recovery of global economy, further adjustment of domestic real estate market, reversion of bubble economy and aggravation of financial risks in 2012. However, due to the constraints of structure rigidity, Chinese government would convert policy orientation in various aspects for the sake of the rebound of Chinese macro economy from accelerated degradation and the emergence of macroeconomic status in the shape of recession at first and recovery later throughout the year.