产出损失和政策效应分化下的G20合作

G20 COOPERATION UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF ASYMMETRIC OUTPUT LOSSES AND POLICY EFFECTS

在对金融危机造成的实体经济产出损失进行测算的基础上,本文着重从经济基础层面对当前G20合作的现实困境加以解释。笔者认为,金融危机对全球经济的冲击形成了G20深化合作的内在动力,但与此同时,冲击的不对称性以及政策效应的分化特征也造成了当前G20进一步深化合作的现实困难。此外,在发展中国家的内部分化特征更为显著的背景下,金融危机后全球经济格局中发达国家主导的局面不会发生根本变化,而围绕市场开放和外部经济失衡调整的利益纷争也必然会有所加剧。

By estimating the output losses associated with the financial crisis, this paper investigated the reasons of the current G20 cooperation dilemma from the economic perspective. We argued that al- though the financial shock promoted the cooperation of G20 significantly, the asymmetric output losses and policy effects also put the G20 cooperation in a predicament, Market opening and the adjustment of eco- nomic imbalances would become the focal points of conflicts of interests among G20 countries. Furthermore, due to the bigger asymmetry of economic preconditions of developing countries, the financial crisis would not reshape the world economic system dominated by the developed countries. The intensification of interest conflicts on the market opening and adjustment of current account balance is inevitable.