基于灰靶决策模型的煤与瓦斯突出可能性评价

Possibility assessment of coal-gas outburst based on grey target model

基于灰色系统理论,建立多指标加权灰靶突出可能性决策模型,对矿井煤与瓦斯突出的可能性进行量化评价。根据10组煤与瓦斯突出危险区域测点数据与预测煤层突出危险性单项指标临界值的靶心距的大小,对矿井突出可能性大小进行评价,并进行了突出可能性等级划分。应用该模型对花宝沟煤矿煤与瓦斯突出的可能性进行评价,评价结果是靶心距距离较大,可能性小,不易发生突出,评价结果与实际情况一致。说明应用多指标加权灰靶突出可能性决策模型对矿井进行煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价是可行的。

Based on grey system theory,multi-index weighted grey target model about hazard possibility division of outburst was established to quantify the hazard possibility of outburst.According to 10 measure stations data of coal-gas outburst area and off-target distance predict of coal seam hazard single index critical value,the hazard possibility of this mine area was evaluated,and the outburst hazard degree was divided.When using this model to evaluate the outburst hazard degree of Huabaogou Coal Mine which is identified non-outburst one,the result which is long off-target distance and low possibility to outburst,fits the reality.Thus,the model is available in practice to assess the possible of coal-gas outburst.