碳税CGE模型对我国经济影响分析

Impact Assessment on Economy in China for Carbon Taxation Policy Based on A Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) Model

以2007年为基年,通过引入对化石能源生产部门征收六种情形的差别税率,构建了一个用于分析研究碳税政策变化对我国经济影响的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型。结果表明,碳税的征收对将产生总产出水平下降0.12%至0.42%、名义GDP下降0.78%至2.56%、居民的总收入下降0.71%至2.34%、企业收入下降0.80%至2.60%等负面影响,但同时也带来了政府收入增长2.72%至7.03%、总投资额增长0.54%至1.46%等积极影响。各部门产出的变化也表明碳税的引入将改善能源结构和调整产业结构,从而提高环境质量。

Take the year 2007 as the base year,through the introduction of different carbon tax rates in six scenarios for fossil energy production sectors,a computable general equilibrium（CGE） model is constructed for the analysis of carbon tax policy changes on China＇s economy.On this basis,a detailed analysis of carbon tax policy on China＇s macroeconomic and sectorial effects is maken.The simulation suggests that once the carbon tax is levied,the total level of output will have decreased from 0.12% to 0.42%,nominal GDP fell from 0.78 percent to 2.56%,the total income of the residents down 0.71% to 2.34%,corporate income decreased from 0.80 to 2.60% and other negative effects,but also brought the government revenue from 2.72% to 7.03%,total investment increased from 0.54% to 1.46% and other positive effects of changes in sectorial output shows that the introduction of carbon tax will improve the energy structure and adjustment of industrial structure,and the environment greatly benefit from the carbon tax.