摘要
随着我国利率市场化改革和汇率体制改革的深入,金融市场的利率水平和人民币汇率水平对商品价格的影响越来越显著。通过建立结构向量自回归SVAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析,比较分析了利率、汇率变动对我国几个主要的商品价格指数的影响后发现,当前利率变动对价格的影响要强于汇率,人民币升值在短期对价格有抑制作用,但是在中期反而有促进作用。利率和汇率变动对价格的影响时间有限,在长期,价格还是会回到初始水平。
With the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate,financial market interest rate and the RMB exchange rate impact on commodity prices more and more significantly.By using the structural vector auto regression（SVAR） model,and impulse response function,we research the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the commodity price comparatively.Empirical analysis showed that the effect of interest rate is stronger than the exchange rate.The appreciation of RMB can bring down the price only in the short-term but promote it in the longer period.No matter interest rate or exchange rate,the effect on price is limited.In the long term,price will return to the initial level.
出处
《特区经济》
北大核心
2011年第12期69-71,共3页
Special Zone Economy
