我国制造业上市公司财务危机预警实证研究

China manufacture listed company finance crisis prediction demonstration research

本文选取沪深两市A股制造业行业的上市公司作为研究对象,在传统财务预警指标基础上,引入公司治理结构、股权结构以及审计意见等非财务预警指标,采用因子分析和Logistic回归建立公司陷入财务危机前两年的财务危机预警模型。实证结果表明,加入审计意见指标建立的综合财务危机预警模型可以提高财务危机预警精度。

This paper selecte A-share listed companies in the field of manufacturing industry of shanghai and shenzhen as research samples.it introduce non-financial warning indicators,such as corporate governance、ownership structure and audit opinion indicators based on the traditional financial warning indicators,it use facto analysie and Logistics Regression analysis to get manufacturing sector forecasting model.Empirical studies indicate that the financial forecasting model which join the audit opinion index can improve the financial crisis warning precision.